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URL: http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-06-29-oxford-dashboard-highlights-potential-future-covid-19-virus-hotspots
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Title: Oxford dashboard highlights potential future COVID-19 virus hotspots | University of Oxford
Description: Potential COVID-19 hotspots can be identified using a new online tool from Oxford University’s Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science. It acts by highlighting which regions have the most at-risk factors and can supplement test-and-trace technology in highlighting potential future infection spikes
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Texto: Oxford dashboard highlights potential future COVID-19 virus hotspots | University of Oxford Skip to main content Home Home Admissions Undergraduate Graduate Continuing education Research Divisions Research impact Libraries Innovation and Partnership Support for researchers Research in conversation Public Engagement with Research News & Events Events Science Blog Arts Blog Oxford and coronavirus Oxford and Brexit News releases for journalists Filming in Oxford Find An Expert About Organisation Facts and figures Oxford people Oxford Access International Oxford Building Our Future Jobs 牛津大学 Search News & Events Events First Animals Online University Events Office Science Blog Arts Blog Oxford and coronavirus Oxford and Brexit News releases for journalists Filming in Oxford Find An Expert Credit: Shutterstock. Harrow: A hot spot for COVID-19 identified by the dashboard Published 29 Jun 2020 Share This Tweet Share on Facebook Share on LinkedIn Share on Reddit Home News Oxford dashboard highlights potential future COVID-19 virus hotspots Oxford dashboard highlights potential future COVID-19 virus hotspots Covid-19 Research healthcare data Potential COVID-19 hotspots can be identified using a new online tool from Oxford University’s Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science. It acts by highlighting which regions have the most at-risk factors and can supplement test-and-trace technology in highlighting potential future infection spikes By combining key data of known COVID-19 vulnerabilities such as age, social deprivation, population density, ethnicity and hospital resources, the tool can show potential risks, to a granular local level, allowing policymakers to target resources effectively.  By combining key data of known COVID-19 vulnerabilities such as age, social deprivation, population density, ethnicity and hospital resources, the tool can show potential risks, to a granular local level, allowing policymakers to target resources effectively Professor Melinda Mills, author and Director of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science says, ‘With additional outbreaks and second waves, thinking not only regionally, but at much smaller scale at the neighbourhood level will be the most effective approach to stifle and contain outbreaks, particularly when a lack of track and trace is in place. The tool can highlight vulnerable areas. It showed Harrow in London as a local area with an exceptionally high age-related risk of hospitalisations due to COVID-19. And this proved the case in practice with The Northwick Park Hospital in Harrow the first to call for a national emergency, due to a lack of capacity early on in the pandemic emergency. The tool can highlight vulnerable areas. It showed Harrow in London as a local area with an exceptionally high age-related risk of hospitalisations due to COVID-19. And this proved the case. Mark Verhagen, lead author of the study, says, ‘By using our online tool, policymakers would immediately have identified Harrow as a potential hotspot of hospital demand. Ensuring that local decision-makers have this type of fine-grained information available was a key goal of this study.’ According to an article published today in BMC Medicine , ‘As countries across the globe exit strict lockdown and enter the ‘new normal’ of co-existence with COVID-19, monitoring new infection hotspots will be crucial....We identify potential health care pressure points in England and Wales where expected hospitalization rates are disproportionately high and the per capita availability of hospital beds is relatively low.’ The article concludes, ‘As this pandemic continues to unfold across the world, we urgently need to consider how emerging socio-demographic risks such as social deprivation, ethnicity and population density structure spatial differences in COVID-19 severity and health care demand.’ As this pandemic continues to unfold across the world, we urgently need to consider how emerging socio-demographic risks such as social deprivation, ethnicity and population density structure spatial differences in COVID-19 severity and health care demand Combining age, social deprivation, population density, and ethnic composition of multiple layers of data with hospital capacity, the researchers have produced online maps to identify the most at risk areas in England and Wales, which can be viewed at levels of the Administrative Region, Ceremonial County (CC), Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) and Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA). Their research has shown areas such as the Isle of Wight and Lincolnshire to have some of the highest risk factors. These areas not only have older populations, but also higher levels of social deprivation. According to the report, ‘We estimate specific pressure points where COVID-19 demand is likely to outstrip the baseline local supply. This again includes rural areas in Wales as well as the North-East and South-West of England where high expected hospitalization rates combine with relatively low bed capacity. Importantly, these areas are often more isolated and further away from alternative hospital services.’  Meanwhile, London and other inner city areas, from Birmingham to Manchester and Liverpool, are highlighted as areas of high population density and deprivation, which have potentially higher risk levels for additional outbreaks. But, although population-based hospitalisation risk tends to be lower in urban centres, some localities in cities may have higher levels of social deprivation and population density, which could counterbalance relatively low age-related risk levels. Furthermore, the online dashboard enables similar, fine-grained analysis for any region in England. Latest Oxford scientists form spinout to launch rapid Covid-19 virus test 8 Jul 2020 Oxford COVID-19 study: face masks and coverings work – act now 8 Jul 2020 Anna Strongman appointed new CEO of Oxford University Development 7 Jul 2020 Male fruit flies' decline in fertility with age is not only driven by changes in sperm 6 Jul 2020 Undergraduate Virtual Open Days allow visitors a taste of student life from a distance 3 Jul 2020 All news Share This Tweet Share on Facebook Share on LinkedIn Share on Reddit Connect with us iTunes Youtube Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Weibo Instagram Medium The Conversation Information About Oxford University Strategic plan Oxford's research Fees and funding Libraries Museums and collections Open days Oxford glossary Freedom of speech statement Statement on Modern Slavery Data privacy / GDPR Sport at Oxford Conferences at Oxford 牛津大学 Information For Prospective undergraduates Prospective graduate students Prospective Continuing Education students Prospective online/distance learning students Current Oxford students Current Oxford staff Oxford residents/Community Visitors/Tourists Media Alumni Teachers Parliamentarians Businesses/Partnerships Quick Links Contact search Jobs and vacancies Term dates Map Nexus365 email Giving to Oxford Oxford University Images © University of Oxford 2020 Contact us About this site Legal Privacy policy Cookie statement Accessibility Statement


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